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NEP: New Economics Papers
Agricultural Economics
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Edited by: Angelo Zago
Universita degli Studi di Verona
Date: 2005-02-27
Papers: 7
This document is in the public domain, feel free to circulate it.
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In this issue we have:
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1. Scenarios for modelling trade policy effects on the
multifunctionality of european agriculture
Janet Dwyer; David Baldock; Herv? Guyomard; Jerzy Wilkin;
Dorota Klepacka
2. Multilateral market-access reforms of the Doha Round: a
preliminary assessment of implications for EU agricultural
trade
Wusheng Yu; Hans G. Hensen
3. WTO Agricultural Negotiations: a comparison of the Harbinson
proposal and the Swiss Formula
Martina Brockmeier; Marianne Kurzweil; Janine Pelikan;
Petra Salamon
4. Economic and Environmental Co-benefits of Carbon
Sequestration in Agricultural Soils: Retiring Agricultural
Land in the Upper Mississippi River Basin
Feng, Hong-Li; Kurkalova, Lyubov; Kling, Catherine L.;
Gassman, Philip W.
5. Evaluating the Saskatchewan Short-Term Hog Loan Program
Lien, Donald; Hennessy, David A.
6. On the Early Holocene: Foraging to Early Agriculture
Nicolas Marceau; Gordon Myers
7. Combining the Water Framework Directive with Agricultural
Policy Scenarios: A Multi-Objective Analysis for the Future of
Irrigated Agricultural in Portugal
Ant?nio Cipriano Pinheiro; Jo?o Paulo Saraiva
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1. Scenarios for modelling trade policy effects on the
multifunctionality of european agriculture
Janet Dwyer
David Baldock
Herv? Guyomard
Jerzy Wilkin
Dorota Klepacka (IEEP)
The ENARPRI partners agreed in February 2004 to prepare a
precise specification for the scenarios that partners would
attempt to model in their own national contexts, to examine the
impacts of trade-related changes upon the multifunctionality of
EU agriculture. This paper outlines a suite of five scenarios
covering anticipated domestic (EU) policy under different
possible outcomes from the Doha round, broadly based upon the
status quo (with mid-term review), full decoupling of domestic
support and full decoupling plus reductions in (decoupled)
domestic support, with variants in relation to export subsidies
and the scale of pillar 2 measures. In all cases it is recognised
that national or sub-national models will require an additional
level of national or regional specification before they can be
run, and that each national team will be required to do this
drawing upon their own domestic knowledge and discussion with
relevant experts. Each of the models that will be used to
undertake these analyses is then briefly reviewed to identify its
general approach and the multifunctionality indicators that can
be covered. These indicators are then set in the broader context
that considers other potential indicators of multifunctionality
and their rationales. The paper concludes with some additional
commentary about the significant differences, and thus the
difficulties, of attempting to undertake this exercise for any of
the new member states.
Date: 2005-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ena:enawpp:010&r=agr
2. Multilateral market-access reforms of the Doha Round: a
preliminary assessment of implications for EU agricultural
trade
Wusheng Yu
Hans G. Hensen (FOI Food and Resource Economics Institute)
The July package of the Doha Round of trade negotiations
stipulates that a tiered-formula approach should be used to
significantly reduce market access barriers across countries,
implying that the EU would have to make larger cuts to its high
external tariffs, in comparison with many other WTO members such
as the US. This paper provides a preliminary assessment of the
likely impact of the tiered-formula reform approach on EU
agricultural sectors. Numerical simulations of a multilateral
market-access reform scenario show that such cuts would lead to
across-the-board decreases in intra-EU trade flows, as compared
with a baseline projection. While intra-EU trade flows would
decrease, the EU?s trade with the rest of the world would
increase. Yet such increases would not be symmetric ? imports
into the EU would increase more than exports, resulting in larger
external trade deficits or smaller external trade surpluses in
many EU agricultural products. Further, the resulting adjustments
in member states? production and net trade positions are not
equal: the new member states would generally lose part of their
export shares in the EU market to external competitors, as
highlighted in the cases of bovine meat and dairy products.
Finally, simulation results show that although EU welfare as a
whole improves, the distribution of such gains across EU member
states is uneven. EU-15 countries generally gain from improved
efficiency as a result of the reform. The new member states,
however, will only experience marginal efficiency improvements
but will likely suffer terms-of-trade losses, thereby losing some
of the related benefits of joining the EU (as projected in the
baseline case).
Date: 2005-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ena:enawpp:011&r=agr
3. WTO Agricultural Negotiations: a comparison of the Harbinson
proposal and the Swiss Formula
Martina Brockmeier
Marianne Kurzweil
Janine Pelikan
Petra Salamon (FAL Federal Agricultural Research Centre)
The WTO negotiations of the Doha round are a key issue in the
public debate. This paper analysis the effects of different
market access option on the basis of general equilibrium model.
An extended version of the GTAP model is used to firstly project
a base run including the Agenda 2000, the EU enlargement, the EBA
agreement and the MTR. The policy simula-tion includes the WTO
negotiations. Here, it is differentiated between three different
experi-ments. While the first experiment simply implements the
HARBINSON 1? proposal, the sec-ond one additionally takes into
account an adoption of the EBA agreement by all industrial-ized
countries. In the third experiment, the tariff cuts are based on
the Swiss Formula using a coefficient of 33 instead of the tiered
approach of HARBINSON. Based on the experiments, it can be shown
that world wide the high protected sectors experiences severe
losses relative to the application of the HARBINSON 1? approach.
The comparison also shows that the highly protected beef and
other processed food products sectors of the EU are particularly
affected by the Swiss Formula.
Date: 2005-02
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ena:enawpp:012&r=agr
4. Economic and Environmental Co-benefits of Carbon
Sequestration in Agricultural Soils: Retiring Agricultural
Land in the Upper Mississippi River Basin
Feng, Hong-Li
Kurkalova, Lyubov
Kling, Catherine L.
Gassman, Philip W.
This study investigates the carbon sequestration potential and
co-benefits from policies aimed at retiring agricultural land in
the Upper Mississippi River Basin, a large, heavily agricultural
area. We extend the empirical measurement of co-benefits from the
previous focus on environmental benefits to include economic
transfers. These transfers have often been mentioned as a co-
benefit, but little empirical work measuring the potential
magnitude of these transfers has previously been undertaken. We
compare and contrast five targeting schemes, each based on
maximizing different physical environmental measures, including
carbon sequestration, soil erosion, nitrogen runoff, nitrogen
leaching, as well as the area enrolled in the program. In each
case, the other environmental benefits and economic transfers are
computed. We find that the geographic distribution of co-benefits
including economic transfers) varies significantly with the
benefit targeted, implying that policy design related to
targeting can have very important implications for both
environmental conditions and income distributions in sub-regions.
Date: 2005-02-22
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genres:12253&r=agr
5. Evaluating the Saskatchewan Short-Term Hog Loan Program
Lien, Donald
Hennessy, David A.
The Saskatchewan short-term hog loan program of 2002 provided a
non-market credit line to participating hog producers. The
repayment conditions for cash advances committed to by the
provincial government depend on later hog prices, and so the
program has derivative contract attributes. We model the
contracts and use an estimated spot price stochastic process to
establish summary statistics for producer benefits from the
program.
Date: 2005-02-24
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genres:12254&r=agr
6. On the Early Holocene: Foraging to Early Agriculture
Nicolas Marceau
Gordon Myers
We consider a world in which the mode of food production,
foraging or agriculture, is endogenous, and in which technology
grows exogenously. Within a model of coalition formation, we
allow individuals to rationally form cooperative communities (
bands) of foragers or farmers. At the lowest levels of technology,
equilibrium entails the grand coalition of foragers, a
cooperative structure which avoids over-exploitation of the
environment. But at a critical state of technology, the
cooperative structure breaks down through an individually
rational splintering of the band. At this stage, there can be an
increase in work and through the over-exploitation of the
environment, a food crisis. In the end, technological growth may
lead to a one-way transition from foraging to agriculture.
Keywords: Foraging, Agriculture, Transition, Coalition Formation,
Cooperation
JEL: N50 O13
Date: 2005
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0502&r=agr
7. Combining the Water Framework Directive with Agricultural
Policy Scenarios: A Multi-Objective Analysis for the Future of
Irrigated Agricultural in Portugal
Ant?nio Cipriano Pinheiro (Department of Economics,
University of ?vora)
Jo?o Paulo Saraiva (Department of Environmental Science and
Technology, Imperial College London)
It is clear that the successful management of water resources
must take into account the influence of policies affecting the
irrigated agriculture sector. Among these, the importance of the
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and of the Water Framework
Directive (WFD) is well recognised. In Portugal, more than 606,
000 hectares (INE 2001b) are allocated to irrigated agriculture,
which accounts for 74.8% of all water uses (INAG 2002). To study
the combined effect of these policies, two irrigated regions of
Portugal, Baixo Alentejo and Lez?ria do Tejo, were analysed in
case studies. Multi-Criteria Decision Making models (MCDM) were
applied to characterise farmers? decision-making attitudes of
the main irrigated agriculture systems of these regions. The
implications of environmental (WFD) and agricultural (CAP) policy
change are assessed by reproducing farmers? decision-making
behaviour. Simulation results indicate that changes in these
policies are conducive to substantial adjustments within the
irrigated agriculture sector. This study demonstrates that the
consequences of implementing the WFD are dependent both on the
water price level set by the WFD and on the agricultural policy
strategy in place.
Keywords: Water Framework Directive; Multi-objective Programming;
Irrigated Agriculture; Water Economics; Portugal
JEL: Q25 Q15 C61
Date: 2005
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:evo:wpecon:2_2005&r=agr
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