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NEP: New Economics Papers
Agricultural Economics
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Edited by: Angelo Zago
http://econpapers.repec.org/RAS/pza49.htm
University of Verona
Date: 2007-03-17
Papers: 15
This document is in the public domain, feel free to circulate it.
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In this issue we have:
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1. Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan, 2001-02: Methodology
and Results
Dorosh, Paul; Niazi, Muhammad Khan
2. KLUM at LPJ: Integrating dynamic land-use decisions into a
dynamic global vegetation and crop growth model to assess the
impacts of a changing climate. A feasibility study for Europe
Kerstin Ronneberger; Luca Criscuolo; Wolfgang Knorr;
Richard S.J. Tol
3. Optimal Conjunctive Use of Surface and Groundwater with
Recharge and Return Flows: Dynamic and Spatial Patterns
Sittidaj Pongkijvorasin; James Roumasset
4. Population and Agricultural Development
James Roumasset
5. KLUM at GTAP: Introducing biophysical aspects of land-use
decisions into a general equilibrium model: A coupling
experiment
Kerstin Ronneberger; Maria Berrittella; Francesco Bosello;
Richard S.J. Tol
6. Losing the Plot: The Strategic Dismantling of White Farming
in Zimbabwe 2000-2005
Angus Selby (QEH)
7. Potential synergies between existing multilateral
environmental agreements in the implementation of Land Use,
Land Use Change and Forestry activities
Annette Cowie; Uwe A. Schneider; Luca Montanarella
8. Formal and Informal Rural Credit in Four Provinces of Vietnam
Mikkel Barslund; Finn Tarp
9. THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE SOUTH-NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT
IN CHINA: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
Maria Berrittella; Katrin Rehdanz; Richard S.J. Tol
10. Wheat Markets and Price Stabilisation in Pakistan: An
Analysis of Policy Options
Dorosh, Paul; Salam, Abdul
11. Climate Change and the Stability of Water Allocation
Agreements
Erik Ansink; Arjan Ruijs
12. THE VALUE OF THE HIGH ASWAN DAM TO THE EGYPTIAN ECONOMY
Kenneth M. Strzepek; Gary W. Yohe; Richard S.J. Tol; Mark
Rosegrant
13. Radical Realignments: The Collapse of the Alliance between
White Farmers and the State in Zimbabwe 1995-2000
Angus Selby (QEH)
14. Why Is The Developed World Obese?
Sara Bleich; David Cutler; Christopher Murray; Alyce Adams
15. Do Loyalty Programs Really Enhance Behavioral Loyalty? An
Empirical Analysis Accounting for Self-Selecting Members
Leenheer, J.; Heerde, H.J. van; Bijmolt, T.H.A.; Smidts, A.
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1. Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan, 2001-02: Methodology
and Results
Dorosh, Paul
Niazi, Muhammad Khan
This paper describes the structure and construction of a social
accounting matrix (SAM) for Pakistan for 2001-02. A SAM is an
internally consistent extended set of national accounts that
disaggregates value-added in each production activity into
payments to various factors (e.g., land, labour, capital), and
disaggregates household incomes and expenditures according to
various household types. Because this Pakistan SAM is designed
for analysis of the links between growth and rural poverty,
agricultural activities, agricultural factors of production, and
rural household accounts are more disaggregated than are those
for urban activities and households. Rural household groups in
the SAM are split according to three regions (Punjab, Sindh, and
Other Pakistan) to capture the large differences in the structure
of agricultural production and incomes across Pakistan. On
average, household incomes in the SAM are 2.1 times greater than
household expenditures in the HIES Survey, reflecting the
apparent substantial under-reporting of expenditures (
particularly on services)and informal sector incomes in the HIES
and other household surveys. Agricultural factor incomes as
calculated in the SAM account for only 23 percent of total factor
incomes in Pakistan, but 60 percent of total factor incomes for
agricultural households. 91 percent of agricultural incomes
derive from land, water, own-farm labour, or livestock; earnings
of hired labour and (nonlivestock)agricultural capital account
for only 9 percent of agricultural incomes. Incomes of large- and
medium-farm rural households, calculated using land area
cultivated, data from the Agricultural Census, and other data,
are significantly higher than indicated in household surveys.
Keywords: National accounts; Social accounting matrix
JEL: E01
Date: 2006
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2242&r=agr
2. KLUM at LPJ: Integrating dynamic land-use decisions into a
dynamic global vegetation and crop growth model to assess the
impacts of a changing climate. A feasibility study for Europe
Kerstin Ronneberger
Luca Criscuolo
Wolfgang Knorr
Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute,
Dublin)
We test the hypothesis that models should be coupled to
accurately project the impacts of climate change on the agro-
economic and agro-environmental system. We couple the LPJ-C
global dynamic vegetation model for crops to the global
agricultural land-use model KLUM. Potential crop yields, from LPJ-
C, and crop prices drive the land-use decisions; cropland
allocation from KLUM scale the carbon entering the soil litter
pool in LPJ-C. Through the crop prices, economic effects are
projected directly on the carbon cycle. Global change impacts are
projected on the agricultural sector and can be economically
assessed. The coupled model performs reasonably well for the
observed climate and prices for 6 crops in Europe on a 0.5x0.5
longitude-latitude grid. We estimate the impact of climate change
on agriculture in Europe for A1 and B2 scenarios of the IPCC. The
coupled model reproduces the essential processes and interactions
of the modeled system. Simulations with the uncoupled models are
used to estimate the accuracy added by the model coupling. Sign
and size of the biases from ignoring the feedbacks are
substantial for some parameters, and particularly their spatial
pattern, while for other parameters (e.g., the European total of
soil organic carbon) biases are negligible. The answer to the
question ?Should models be coupled?? is ?It depends on what
you?re interested in?.
Keywords: Climate change, land use, soil carbon, model coupling
JEL: Q54
Date: 2006-06
Date: 2006-06
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:113&r=agr
3. Optimal Conjunctive Use of Surface and Groundwater with
Recharge and Return Flows: Dynamic and Spatial Patterns
Sittidaj Pongkijvorasin (Department of Economics, University
of Hawaii at Manoa)
James Roumasset (Department of Economics, University of
Hawaii at Manoa)
This paper derives the efficiency price patterns for a
comprehensive spatial and dynamic model of conjunctive water use
incorporating conveyance losses, canal return flows, and
groundwater recharge. The first-best shadow price of surface
water is composed of a charge for water that flows into the farm
and differential credits for water that flows to other uses. The
shadow prices can be used as the basis of water pricing schemes
or for exchange rates to facilitate water trading. We show that
farmers near the headworks use irrigation water in the optimal
program, and only farmers more distant from the headworks extract
groundwater. We also illustrate the possibility of reswitching in
the sequence of resource use. It may be efficient for some farms
to switch from one source to another and then switch back again,
e.g. groundwater to surface water to groundwater.
Keywords: water management, conjunctive use, irrigation, return
flows, conveyance loss, consumptive use, sequence of
resource use
JEL: Q15 Q25 Q28
Date: 2007-03-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hai:wpaper:200704&r=agr
4. Population and Agricultural Development
James Roumasset (Department of Economics, University of
Hawaii at Manoa)
Thinking about population as a driver of agricultural
development provides insights into induced technical and
institutional change, whether it be Esther Boserup's declining
fallow period, modern crop varieties, or the specialization
pyramid that arises in labor-intensive agriculture. The non-
convexities of research and development, infrastructure
investments, and specialization imply that modest population
pressure does not necessarily exert downward pressure on wages.
As agricultural growth stimulates industrialization, the non-
convexities of specialization become ever more compact. The
combination of these and the increased demand for human capital,
if not inhibited by policy failures, tends to promote a virtuous
circle of human progress.
Keywords: population, agricultural development, Boserup, non-
convexities, specialization, institutional change
JEL: J10 O12 O43 P23 Q01
Date: 2007-03-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hai:wpaper:200702&r=agr
5. KLUM at GTAP: Introducing biophysical aspects of land-use
decisions into a general equilibrium model: A coupling
experiment
Kerstin Ronneberger
Maria Berrittella
Francesco Bosello
Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute,
Dublin)
In this paper the global agricultural land use model KLUM is
coupled to an extended version of the computable general
equilibrium model (CGE) GTAP in order to consistently assess the
integrated impacts of climate change on global cropland
allocation and its implication for economic development. The
methodology is innovative as it introduces dynamic economic land-
use decisions based also on the biophysical aspects of land into
a state-ofthe- art CGE; it further allows the projection of
resulting changes in cropland patterns on a spatially more
explicit level. A convergence test and illustrative future
simulations underpin the robustness and potentials of the coupled
system. Reference simulations with the uncoupled models emphasize
the impact and relevance of the coupling; the results of coupled
and uncoupled simulations can differ by several hundred percent.
Keywords: Land-use change, computable general equilibrium
modeling, integrated assessment, climate change
JEL: C68 R14 Q17 Q24
Date: 2006-05
Date: 2006-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:105&r=agr
6. Losing the Plot: The Strategic Dismantling of White Farming
in Zimbabwe 2000-2005
Angus Selby (QEH)
This paper examines the dismantling of the white farming sector
in Zimbabwe after 2000. It argues that although ZANU PF portrayed
farm invasions as a demonstrable effort towards populist land
reforms, the 'fast-track' strategy was primarily one of political
survival, and that this is evident in the pattern of land
invasions and land allocations. Farm invasions quickly evolved
into a systematic and methodical purge of commercial farms, to
undermine support for the MDC from farmers and farm workers.
Local contexts and local politics shaped the nature of local
invasions, but the overall program was centrally endorsed and
centrally co-ordinated. The reallocation of farms and assets were
strategically geared towards placating key groups and key
individuals within ZANU PF's increasingly militarised patronage
system. Finally, this paper explores the reactions, counter
strategies and patterns of collapse within the white farming
sector. It illustrates how the community and its institutions
fragmented along established planes of historical division, re-
emphasising the significance of differentiation among farmers,
throughout their history.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qeh:qehwps:qehwps143&r=agr
7. Potential synergies between existing multilateral
environmental agreements in the implementation of Land Use,
Land Use Change and Forestry activities
Annette Cowie
Uwe A. Schneider (Research unit Sustainability and Global
Change, Hamburg)
Luca Montanarella
There is potential for synergy between the global environmental
conventions on climate change, biodiversity and desertification:
changes in land management and land use undertaken to reduce net
greenhouse gas emissions can simultaneously deliver positive
outcomes for conservation of biodiversity, and mitigation of
desertification and land degradation. However, while there can be
complementarities between the three environmental goals, there
are often tradeoffs. Thus, the challenge lies in developing land
use policies that promote optimal environmental outcomes, and in
implementing these locally to promote sustainable development.
The paper considers synergies and tradeoffs in implementing land
use measures to address the objectives of the three global
environmental conventions, both from an environmental and
economic perspective. The intention is to provide environmental
scientists and policy makers with a broad overview of these
considerations, and the benefits of addressing the conventions
simultaneously.
Keywords: Climate change, LULUCF, Biodiversity, Desertification,
Sustainable development.
JEL: Q54
Date: 2007-01
Date: 2007-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:123&r=agr
8. Formal and Informal Rural Credit in Four Provinces of Vietnam
Mikkel Barslund (Department of Economics, University of
Copenhagen)
Finn Tarp (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)
This paper uses a survey of 932 rural households to uncover how
the rural credit market operates in four provinces of Vietnam.
Households obtain credit through formal and informal lenders.
Formal loans are almost entirely for production and asset
accumulation, while informal loans are used for consumption
smoothening. Interest rates fell from 1997 to 2002, reflecting
increased market integration. Moreover, the determinants of
formal and informal credit demand are distinct. While credit
rationing depends on education and credit history, in particular,
regional differences in the demand for credit are striking. A
?one size fits all? approach to credit policy in Vietnam
would be inappropriate.
Keywords: rural credit; household survey; Vietnam
JEL: O12 O16 O17 O18
Date: 2007-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0707&r=agr
9. THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE SOUTH-NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT
IN CHINA: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
Maria Berrittella
Katrin Rehdanz
Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute,
Dublin)
Water resources are unevenly spread in China. Especially the
basins of the Yellow, Hui and Hai rivers in the North are rather
dry. To increase the supply of water in these basins, the South-
to-North Water Transfer project (SNWT) was launched. Using a
computable general equilibrium model this study estimates the
impact of the project on the economy of China and the rest of the
world. We contrast three alternative groups of scenarios. All are
directly concerned with the South-to-North water transfer project
to increase water supply. In the first group of scenarios
additional supply implies productivity gains. We call it the
?non-market? solution. The second group of scenarios is
called ?market solution?. The market price for water adjusts
such that supply and demand are equated again. In the third group
of simulations the economic implications of China?s capital
investment in infrastructure for the water South-North water
transfer project is analyzed. Finally, the investment is combined
with the increased capacity of water. If an increase in water
supply in China leads to an increase in productivity of their
water-intensive goods and services (non-market solution) this
would result in a huge positive welfare effect from increased
production and export. The effect on China?s welfare would
still be positive, if a market for water would exist (market
solution), but the world as a whole would lose. The negative
effect for the rest of the world is largely explained by a
deterioration of its terms-of-trade. Well functioning water
markets in China are unlikely to exist.
Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium, South-North Water
Transfer Project, Water Policy, Water Scarcity
JEL: D58 R13 Q25 Q28
Date: 2006-09
Date: 2006-09
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:117&r=agr
10. Wheat Markets and Price Stabilisation in Pakistan: An
Analysis of Policy Options
Dorosh, Paul
Salam, Abdul
This article provides a quantitative analysis of the effects of
Pakistan government domestic wheat procurement, sales, and trade
policies on wheat supply, demand, prices, and overall inflation.
Analysis of price multipliers indicates that increases in wheat
procurement prices (one means of promoting domestic procurement)
have relatively small effects on overall price levels. Partial
equilibrium analysis of wheat markets suggests that fluctuations
in production, rather than market manipulation, are plausible
explanations for price increases in recent years. Comparisons of
domestic and international prices suggest that promoting private
sector imports is one alternative for increasing supply and
stabilising market prices, particularly in years of production
shortfalls. Overall, this paper concludes that market forces play
a dominant role in price determination in Pakistan, and that
policies that promote the private sector wheat trade can both
increase price stability and reduce fiscal costs.
Keywords: Wheat; Agricultural prices; Pakistan
JEL: Q11 Q13
Date: 2006
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2244&r=agr
11. Climate Change and the Stability of Water Allocation
Agreements
Erik Ansink (Wageningen University)
Arjan Ruijs (Wageningen University)
We analyse agreements on river water allocation between riparian
countries. Besides being efficient, water allocation agreements
need to be stable in order to be effective in increasing the
efficiency of water use. In this paper, we assess the stability
of water allocation agreements, using a game theoretic model. We
consider the effects of climate change and the choice of a
sharing rule on stability. Our results show that both a decrease
in mean river flow and an increase in the variance of river flow
decrease the stability of an agreement. An agreement where the
downstream country is allocated a fixed amount of water has the
lowest stability compared to other sharing rules.
Keywords: Water Allocation, Stability, Climate Change, Game
Theory
JEL: C7 Q25
Date: 2007-02
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2007.16&r=agr
12. THE VALUE OF THE HIGH ASWAN DAM TO THE EGYPTIAN ECONOMY
Kenneth M. Strzepek
Gary W. Yohe
Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute,
Dublin)
Mark Rosegrant
The High Aswan Dam converted a variable and uncertain flow of
river water into a predictable and controllable flow. We use a
computable general equilibrium model of the Egyptian economy to
estimate the economic impact of the High Aswan Dam. We compare
the 1997 economy as it was to the 1997 economy as it would have
been for 72 historical, pre-dam water flows. The steady water
flow increased transport productivity, while the seasonal shift
in water supply allowed for a shift towards more valuable summer
crops. These static effects are worth LE 4.9 billion. Investments
in transport and agriculture increased as a consequence. Assuming
that Egypt is a small open economy, this is worth another LE 1.1
billion. The risk premium on the reduced variability is estimated
to be LE 1.1 billion for a modest risk aversion, and perhaps LE 4.
4 billion for a high risk aversion. The total gain of LE 7.1
billion equals 2.7% of GDP.
Keywords: Egypt, High Aswan Dam, computable general equilibrium
model, risk premium, water supply
JEL: C68 O13 Q25
Date: 2006-06
Date: 2006-06
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:111&r=agr
13. Radical Realignments: The Collapse of the Alliance between
White Farmers and the State in Zimbabwe 1995-2000
Angus Selby (QEH)
This paper explores the collapse of the alliance between
commercial farmers and the state in Zimbabwe. It argues that
relations had deteriorated irrevocably by the late 1990s,
precluding opportunities for compromise, and concludes that
farmer opposition to the constitutional referendum in 2000 was
symptomatic of deteriorating relations, rather than the catalyst.
These assertions are based on interpretation of several key
interacting issues: the reconstitution and politicisation of land
demand within Zimbabwe's deteriorating socio-economic climate;
the internal reconfiguration of the ruling party under pressure
from black empowerment interests and war veterans,; the
radicalisation of land policy through ZANU PF's aggressive
centralisation of the land issue within the political and
economic crises; and finally, a limited awareness of these issues
by commercial farmers, donors and the international community,
and consequently poor counter-strategising by these groups.
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qeh:qehwps:qehwps144&r=agr
14. Why Is The Developed World Obese?
Sara Bleich
David Cutler
Christopher Murray
Alyce Adams
Obesity has risen dramatically in the past few decades. However,
the relative contribution of energy intake and energy expenditure
to rising obesity is not known. Moreover, the extent to which
social and economic factors tip the energy balance is not well
understood. In this longitudinal analysis of developed countries,
we estimate the relative contribution of increased caloric intake
and reduced physical activity to obesity using two methods of
energy accounting. Results show that rising obesity is primarily
the result of consuming more calories. We estimate multivariate
regression models and use simulation analysis to explore
technological and sociodemographic determinants of this dietary
excess. Results indicate that the increase in caloric intake is
associated with technological innovations such as reduced food
prices as well as changing sociodemographic factors such as
increased urbanization and increased female labor force
participation. The study findings offer useful insights to future
research concerned with the etiology of obesity and may help
inform the development of obesity-related policy. In particular,
our results suggest that policies to encourage less caloric
intake may help reverse past trends in increased consumption.
JEL: I12 I18
Date: 2007-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12954&r=agr
15. Do Loyalty Programs Really Enhance Behavioral Loyalty? An
Empirical Analysis Accounting for Self-Selecting Members
Leenheer, J.
Heerde, H.J. van
Bijmolt, T.H.A.
Smidts, A. (Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM),
RSM Erasmus University)
One of the pressing issues in marketing is whether loyalty
programs really enhance behavioral loyalty. Loyalty program
members may have a much higher share-of-wallet at the firm with
the loyalty program than non-members have, but this does not
necessarily imply that loyalty programs are effective. Loyal
customers may select themselves to become members in order to
benefit from the program. Since this implies that program
membership is endogenous, we estimate models for both the
membership decision (using instrumental variables) and for the
effect of membership on share-of-wallet, our measure of
behavioral loyalty. We use panel data from a representative
sample of Dutch households who report their loyalty program
memberships for all seven loyalty programs in grocery retailing
as well as their expenditures at each of the 20 major supermarket
chains. We find a small positive yet significant effect of
loyalty program membership on share-of-wallet. This effect is
seven times smaller than is suggested by a na?ve model that
ignores the endogeneity of program membership. The predictive
validity of the proposed model is much better than for the na?ve
model. Our results show that creating loyalty program membership
is a crucial step to enhance share-of-wallet, and we provide
guidelines how to achieve this.
Keywords: Loyalty programs;Grocery retailing;Endogeneity;Tobit-
II model;Attraction models;
Date: 2006-11-01
Date: 2007-03-08
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:eureri:30009938&r=agr
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