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NEP: New Economics Papers
Agricultural Economics
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Edited by: Angelo Zago
http://econpapers.repec.org/RAS/pza49.htm
University of Verona
Date: 2007-03-24
Papers: 20
This document is in the public domain, feel free to circulate it.
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+ Note: Access to full contents may be restricted +
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In this issue we have:
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1. THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF RESTRICTED WATER SUPPLY: A COMPUTABLE
GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
Maria Berrittella; Katrin Rehdanz; Arjen Y. Hoekstra;
Roberto Roson; Richard S.J. Tol
2. Pathways out of poverty during an economic crisis: An
empirical assessment of rural Indonesia
Neil McCulloch; Julian Weisbrod; C. Peter Timmer
3. THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF WATER PRICING: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL
EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
Maria Berrittella; Katrin Rehdanz; Roberto Roson; Richard S.
J. Tol
4. Agricultural trade liberalization under Doha: the risks
facing African countries
Badiane, Ousmane
5. Technical Efficiency and Small-scale Fishing Households in
Tanzanian coastal Villages: An Empirical Analysis
Jennifer K. sesabo; Richard S.J. Tol
6. Exporing growth linkages and market opportunities for
agriculture in Southern Africa:
Nin Pratt, Alejandro; Diao, Xinshen
7. Water Use in China?s Domestic, Industrial and Agricultural
Sectors: An Empirical Analysis
Zhou Yuan; Richard S.J. Tol
8. Public policies and agribusiness expansion in Brazilian
agricultural frontier
Christoffoli, Pedro Ivan
9. KLUM: A SIMPLE MODEL OF GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL LAND USE AS A
COUPLING TOOL OF ECONOMY AND VEGETATION
Kerstin Ronneberger; Uwe A. Schneider; Richard S.J. Tol
10. Pathways out of poverty during an economic crisis : an
empirical assessment of rural Indonesia
McCulloch, Neil; Weisbrod, Julian; Timmer, C. Peter
11. TRIPLE DIVIDENDS OF WATER CONSUMPTION CHARGES IN SOUTH AFRICA
Anthony Letsoalo; James Blignaut; Theuns de Wet; Martin de
Wit; Sebastiaan Hess; Richard S.J. Tol; Jan van Heerden
12. Subsidies and regulatory reform in West African cotton: What
are the development stakes?
Shepherd, Ben; Delpeuch, Claire
13. Development domains for Ethiopia: capturing the geographical
context of smallholder development options
Chamberlin, Jordan; Pender, John; Yu, Bingxin
14. Aid, agriculture and poverty in developing countries.
Paul Mosley; Abrar Suleiman
15. Rubber based Agroforestry Systems (RAS) as Alternatives for
Rubber Monoculture System.
Gede Wibawa; Laxman Joshi; Meine Van Noordwijk; Eric Andr?
Penot
16. Rebuilding the Eastern Baltic cod stock under environmental
change - a preliminary approach using stock, environmental,
and management constraints
Christine Roeckmann; Uwe A. Schneider; Michael A. St.John;
Richard S.J. Tol
17. Assessing potential impact of avian influenza on poultry in
West Africa: a spatial equilibrium model analysis
You, Liangzhi; Diao, Xinshen
18. Public Infrastructure, Input Efficiency and Productivity
Growth in the Canadian Food Processing Industry
Jeffrey I. Bernstein; Theofanis P. Mamuneas
19. THE BENEFITS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION REDUCTION: AN
APPLICATION OF FUND
Richard S.J. Tol
20. Decomposing the Growth in Residential Land in the United
States
Overman, Henry G.; Puga, Diego; Turner, Matthew A
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1. THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF RESTRICTED WATER SUPPLY: A COMPUTABLE
GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
Maria Berrittella
Katrin Rehdanz
Arjen Y. Hoekstra
Roberto Roson
Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute,
Dublin)
Water problems are typically studied at the level of the river
catchment. About 70% of all water is used for agriculture, and
agricultural products are traded internationally. A full
understanding of water use is impossible without understanding
the international market for food and related products, such as
textiles. The water embedded in commodities is called virtual
water. Based on a general equilibrium model, we offer a method
for investigating the role of water resources and water scarcity
in the context of international trade. We run five alternative
scenarios, analysing the effects of water scarcity due to reduced
availability of groundwater. This can be a consequence of
physical constraints, and of policies curbing water demand. Four
scenarios are based on a ?market solution?, where water
owners can capitalize their water rent or taxes are recycled. In
the fifth ?non-market? scenario, this is not the case; supply
restrictions imply productivity losses. Restrictions in water
supply would shift trade patterns of agriculture and virtual
water. These shifts are larger if the restriction is larger, and
if the use of water in production is more rigid. Welfare losses
are substantially larger in the non-market situation. Water-
constrained agricultural producers lose, but unconstrained
agricultural produces gain; industry gains as well. As a result,
there are regional winners and losers from water supply
constraints. Because of the current distortions of agricultural
markets, water supply constraints could improve allocative
efficiency; this welfare gain may more than offset the welfare
losses due to the resource constraint.
Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium, Sustainable Water
Supply, Virtual Water, Water Scarcity
JEL: D58 Q25 Q28
Date: 2006-01
Date: 2006-07
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:93&r=agr
2. Pathways out of poverty during an economic crisis: An
empirical assessment of rural Indonesia
Neil McCulloch (World Bank Office Jakarta)
Julian Weisbrod (University of Goettingen)
C. Peter Timmer (Center for Global Development)
Most poor people in developing countries still live in rural
areas and are primarily engaged in low productivity farming
activities. Thus pathways out of poverty are likely to be
strongly connected to productivity increases in the rural economy,
whether they are realised in farming, rural non-farm enterprises
or via rural-urban migration. We use cross-sectional data from
the Central Statistical Board (BPS) for 1993 and 2002, as well as
a panel data set from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) for
1993 and 2000, to show which pathways out of poverty were most
successful over this period. Our findings suggest that increased
engagement of farmers in rural non-farm enterprises is an
important route out of rural poverty, but that most of the rural
agricultural poor that exit poverty still do so while remaining
rural and agricultural. Thus changes in agricultural prices,
wages and productivity still play a critical role in moving
people out of poverty.
Keywords: Poverty dynamics, non-farm sector, micro-growth
regression
JEL: O12 O13 O18 O53 R11
Date: 2007-03-21
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:vwldps:131&r=agr
3. THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF WATER PRICING: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL
EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
Maria Berrittella
Katrin Rehdanz
Roberto Roson
Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute,
Dublin)
Water is scarce in many countries. One instrument to improve the
allocation of a scarce resource is (efficient) pricing or
taxation. However, water is implicitly traded on international
markets, particularly through food and textiles, so that impacts
of water taxes cannot be studied in isolation, but require an
analysis of international trade implications. We include water as
a production factor in a multi-region, multi-sector computable
general equilibrium model (GTAP), to assess a series of water tax
policies. We find that water taxes reduce water use, and lead to
shifts in production, consumption, and international trade
patterns. Countries that do not levy water taxes are nonetheless
affected by other countries? taxes. Taxes on agricultural water
use drive most of the economic and welfare impacts. Reductions in
water use (welfare losses) are less (more) than linear in the
price of water. The results are sensitive to the assumed ability
to substitute other production factors for water. A water tax on
production would have different effects on water use, production
and trade patterns, and the size and distribution of welfare
losses than would a water tax on final consumption.
Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium, Virtual Water, Water
Allocation, Water Pricing, Water Scarcity
JEL: D58 Q25 Q28
Date: 2006-01
Date: 2006-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:96&r=agr
4. Agricultural trade liberalization under Doha: the risks
facing African countries
Badiane, Ousmane
"African countries tend to be affected by global agricultural
policies in the same way as other economies but with much more
severe economy-wide repercussions... The present discussion paper
1) examines the vulnerability of Africa economies with respect to
global agricultural trading policies and their induced changes in
world agricultural markets, based on the above characteristics; 2)
analyzes the efficiency effects within Africa's agricultural
sector of world market distortions resulting from agricultural
trading policies; 3) illustrates the impact of global
protectionism on poverty levels and distribution among rural
households in Africa and the implication for the objective of
poverty reduction; 4) reviews the options and risks facing
African countries in their pursuit of opportunities for greater
participation in the global trading system, in particular in
connection with the Doha trade agenda; and 5) discusses options
for global trade liberalization that would best benefit African
economies. The paper argues that the insistence on the part of
African countries on Special and Differential Treatment entails
much more risks than benefits for their economies. It also
indicates that trade preferences have been less beneficial to
African economies than usually assumed and at any rate have not
been significant enough to compensate African countries for the
negative impact of global protectionism. Finally, the paper also
disagrees with the widely accepted conclusion that African
countries would suffer from liberalization of global agricultural
policies because they tend to be net food importers. That
conclusion does not sufficiently take into consideration the
dynamic long term effects of global policy changes on production
and trading patterns among African countries and the potential
efficiency effects that would emanate there from." Authors'
Abstract
Keywords: Agricultural policies, International trade,
agricultural sector, Protectionism, Doha agreement,
trade liberalization, Poverty reduction, Rural
households,
Date: 2006
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:dsgddp:39&r=agr
5. Technical Efficiency and Small-scale Fishing Households in
Tanzanian coastal Villages: An Empirical Analysis
Jennifer K. sesabo
Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute,
Dublin)
The effort to conserve fisheries resources and improve the
welfare of small-scale fishing households is an important
objective of Poverty Reduction Strategies (PRS) in Tanzania. The
success of such strategies depends both on the variation and the
level of efficiency within small-scale fishing households. This
paper examines the technical efficiency of small-scale fishing
households in Tanzania using data from two coastal villages (
Mlingotini and Nyamanzi). A stochastic frontier (with technical
inefficiency effects) model is specified and estimated. The
estimated mean technical efficiency of small-scale fishing
households is 52%. Results show that the efficiency of individual
fishing households is positively associated with fishing
experience, size of farming land, distance to the fishing ground,
and potential market integration and negatively related to non-
farm employment and bigger household sizes. We find that future
policies aiming at targeting conservation-development issues in
fishing communities should be concerted to provide mechanisms,
which improve the access of small-scale fishing households to
less destructive fishing tools via provision of credits, and
markets as well as the creation of new employment opportunities
in other sectors.
Keywords: Fishing households, Fisheries development, Stochastic
production frontier, Technical efficiency, Tanzania
JEL: D13 O13 Q22
Date: 2006-01
Date: 2006-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:95&r=agr
6. Exporing growth linkages and market opportunities for
agriculture in Southern Africa:
Nin Pratt, Alejandro
Diao, Xinshen
"Considering the heterogeneity of the countries of southern
Africa and the presence of South Africa and other middle-income
countries in the region, southern Africa has a unique opportunity
to exploit agricultural potential and regional trade
opportunities through regional dynamics and integration. We
analyze the implications of such opportunities for the growth of
the low-income countries, using a regional general equilibrium
model that captures growth linkages. We find that growth in the
middle-income southern African countries, such as South Africa,
benefits the region's low-income countries through increased
demand for their agricultural exports. Agricultural productivity
growth, however, is necessary for low-income countries to take
advantage of South Africa's growth. Productivity growth in the
low-income countries' grain and livestock sectors generates more
growth in GDP and food consumption than growth in nontraditional
export crops. Unlike other regions where growth in grain
production is likely to be constrained by domestic demand,
expanding middle-income economies in southern Africa provide
additional demand for grains and livestock, slowing the decline
in grain prices in the region." Authors' Abstract
Keywords: Regional trade, General equilibrium model, Regional
integration, Agricultural productivity, Grain
production,
Date: 2006
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:dsgddp:42&r=agr
7. Water Use in China?s Domestic, Industrial and Agricultural
Sectors: An Empirical Analysis
Zhou Yuan
Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute,
Dublin)
Demand management plays an increasingly important role in
dealing with water scarcity in China. It is important to
understand the level and pattern of water use in various sectors
across the regions for any measures being put into effect. The
aim of this study is to enhance the understanding of the factors
that influence water demand by examining closely the water use in
domestic, industrial and agricultural sectors. Using province
level panel data from 1997 to 2003, the examination shows that
the regional disparity in the level and pattern of water uses is
considerable. The estimation of water demand shows that both
economic and climatic variables have significant effects on water
demand. The results suggest an income elasticity of 0.42 for the
domestic sector, an output elasticity of -0.32 for industrial
water use (per unit of output), and an output elasticity of ?0.
24 for irrigated agriculture (per land area).
Keywords: water use, regional variation, elasticity, demand
management
JEL: L95 Q25
Date: 2005-06
Date: 2005-06
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:67&r=agr
8. Public policies and agribusiness expansion in Brazilian
agricultural frontier
Christoffoli, Pedro Ivan
The article discuss the impact derived of the public policies
adopted by brazilian government about the expansion of
agribusiness activities that causes deforestation and social
impacts in the Amazonian and Cerrados regions.
Keywords: agricultural frontier in Brazil; soybean production;
public policies and deforestation
JEL: Q57 Q56 Q15
Date: 2006-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2219&r=agr
9. KLUM: A SIMPLE MODEL OF GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL LAND USE AS A
COUPLING TOOL OF ECONOMY AND VEGETATION
Kerstin Ronneberger
Uwe A. Schneider
Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute,
Dublin)
The Kleines Land Use Model (KLUM), is a global agricultural
landallocation model, developed as a tool to dynamically couple
global state-of-the-art vegetation and economy models. The
allocation process is based on profit maximisation, assuming risk
aversion and decreasing returns to scales. The model is suited
for long-term predictions, acknowledges spatial and biophysical
diversity and enables the data exchange with common vegetation
models. Finally, the effective simplicity of the mechanism
facilitates online-coupling with larger models. Simulations of
future crop allocation under climate change suggest that
cultivation of cereals would fall in favour of minor crops such
as vegetables and fruits. Total revenue of crop production is
predicted to increase for most parts of the world. The comparison
with two reference scenarios, where solely prices or yields are
changed show that the observed results are dominated by the
induced price changes. Losses in revenue prevail and changes in
area are more balanced over the world when only the much smaller
yield changes are applied. Yet, the simple sum of price and yield
effects on crop allocation can differ in magnitude and sign from
the real dynamics, emphasising the importance of simultaneous
inclusion of economic and biophysical aspects of land-use
decisions.
Keywords: global land-use model, crop allocation, feed back loop,
climate change
JEL: Q54
Date: 2005-05
Date: 2005-05
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:65&r=agr
10. Pathways out of poverty during an economic crisis : an
empirical assessment of rural Indonesia
McCulloch, Neil
Weisbrod, Julian
Timmer, C. Peter
Most poor people in developing countries still live in rural
areas and are primarily engaged in low productivity farming
activities. Thus pathways out of poverty are likely to be
strongly connected to productivity increases in the rural economy,
whether they are realized in farming, in rural nonfarm
enterprises, or by way of rural-urban migration. The authors use
cross-sectional data from the Central Statistical Board for 1993
and 2002, as well as a panel data set from the Indonesia Family
Life Survey for 1993 and 2000, to show which pathways out of
poverty were most successful over this period. The findings
suggest that increased engagement of farmers in rural nonfarm
enterprises is an important route out of rur al poverty, but that
most of the rural agricultural poor that exit poverty still do so
while remaining rural and agricultural. So changes in
agricultural prices, wages, and productivity still play a
critical role in moving people out of poverty.
Keywords: Rural Poverty Reduction,Population Policies,Pro-Poor
Growth and Inequality,Economic Theory & Research
Date: 2007-03-01
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4173&r=agr
11. TRIPLE DIVIDENDS OF WATER CONSUMPTION CHARGES IN SOUTH AFRICA
Anthony Letsoalo
James Blignaut
Theuns de Wet
Martin de Wit
Sebastiaan Hess
Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute,
Dublin)
Jan van Heerden
The South African government is exploring ways to address water
scarcity problems by introducing a water resource management
charge on the quantity of water used in sectors such as irrigated
agriculture, mining and forestry. It is expected that a more
efficient water allocation, lower use and a positive impact on
poverty can be achieved. This paper reports on the validity of
these claims by applying a computable general equilibrium model
to analyse the triple dividend of water consumption charges in
South Africa: reduced water use, more rapid economic growth, and
a more equal income distribution. It is shown that the
appropriate, budget-neutral combination of water charges,
particularly on irrigated agriculture and coal mining, and
reduced indirect taxes, particularly on food, would yield triple
dividends.
Keywords: water scarcity, water charges, triple dividend,
poverty alleviation, computable general equilibrium
model
JEL: O13 Q25
Date: 2005-04
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:62&r=agr
12. Subsidies and regulatory reform in West African cotton: What
are the development stakes?
Shepherd, Ben
Delpeuch, Claire
? Available evidence strongly suggests that cotton producers
in West Africa are relatively unresponsive to changes in world
prices. This means they are poorly placed to take advantage of
improved market conditions that might result from the reduction
or abolition of cotton subsidies in rich countries. ? To
increase price responsiveness and ensure that the results of
multilateral reform match producers? expectations it is now
more urgent than ever to undertake comprehensive regulatory
reform of cotton marketing structures. ? While most West
African countries have already taken important steps in that
direction, much work still remains to be done, in particular in
Mali. The necessary path of reform is highly complex and country-
specific, but we can suggest some overarching goals: Assuring
closer alignment between world and domestic (producer) prices;
Improving cotton sector productivity by reinforcing market
infrastructure at crucial points in the supply chain, and
ensuring openness to technological advances including
biotechnology; Investing in physical and informational
infrastructure so as to bring farmers closer to markets.
Keywords: International trade; agriculture; cotton; commodity
marketing; regulatory reform; West Africa.
JEL: F13 Q17
Date: 2007-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2289&r=agr
13. Development domains for Ethiopia: capturing the geographical
context of smallholder development options
Chamberlin, Jordan
Pender, John
Yu, Bingxin
"The choices that smallholder farmers are able to make are
strongly conditioned by the geographic conditions in which they
live. The importance of this fact for rural development strategy
is not lost on policy makers. For example, the government of
Ethiopia frequently frames policy discussions by broadly
different geographical conditions of moisture availability,
recognizing moisture reliable, drought prone and pastoralist
areas. These conditions are seen as important criteria for
determining the nature, extent and priority of development
interventions for different parts of the country. There is
considerable evidence, however, that other geographical factors
also have important implications for rural development options.
This paper uses agroecology, access to markets, and population
density to define development domains: geographical locations
sharing broadly similar rural development constraints and
opportunities. Unlike similar efforts conducted elsewhere, this
work is unique in that it seeks to move away from a subjective
mapping of factors of theorized importance to a more rigorous
definition of development domains on the basis of quantitative
data on smallholder livelihood strategies. After selecting
variables for mapping, we calibrate our definition for domains in
such a way that their explanatory power is maximized across a
range of livelihood strategies that figure in the current
Ethiopian rural development discourse (market engagement,
dependence upon agriculture, etc.)." Authors' Abstract
Keywords: Smallholders, Small farmers, Geographic conditions,
rural development strategies, Development policy, Agro-
ecology, Market access, Livelihoods, Population density,
Date: 2006
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:dsgddp:43&r=agr
14. Aid, agriculture and poverty in developing countries.
Paul Mosley
Abrar Suleiman (Department of Economics, The University of
Sheffield)
We make two contributions to the debate on aid-effectiveness,
illustrating that for impact on poverty what matters is not just
the level but also the composition and stability of aid. One
specific implication of this for aid policy is that aid most
effectively reduces poverty if it supports public (and other)
expenditures which are supportive of agricultural development ?
these, our regression analysis confirms, are not only direct
expenditure on agriculture, but also education and infrastructure,
and military expenditure has a negative impact. Three factors
appear to be particularly conducive to the development of stable
pro-poor expenditure patterms (and in particular pro-agriculture
expenditure patterns). These are expenditure strategies which
protect the poor against risk, the development of stable
relations between governments and aid donors, and long-term
political commitment to pro-poor strategies by government. The
argument is pursued partly by panel-data econometric analysis of
developing countries as a whole, and partly by case studies of
sustained and non-sustained green revolutions in heavily aid-
dependent countries in Africa.
Date: 2005-06
Date: 2005-06
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2005010&r=agr
15. Rubber based Agroforestry Systems (RAS) as Alternatives for
Rubber Monoculture System.
Gede Wibawa
Laxman Joshi
Meine Van Noordwijk
Eric Andr? Penot (Agriculteurs et innovations - Innovations
et dynamiques des exploitations agricoles - [CIRAD : UPR43],
UMR 85 - UMR innovation - [CIRAD : UMR85][INRA] - [sup-
agro])
Smallholder rubber plantations in Indonesia, representing more
than 80% of the total rubber areas, are very unique in the world.
Most smallholder rubber areas are multi-strata in nature. Rubber
is not the only perennial crop in that area, but also mixed with
timber trees (forest re-growth), fruit trees, and different
annual crops. Scientists identified these multistrata systems or
called ?Jungle Rubber? have multiple functions such as main
income source for many farmers; keeping certain level of the
forest biodiversity; Carbon sequestration; soil and water
conservation. Many efforts have been done by the Indonesian
Government to improve the productivity of jungle rubber through
monocuture system such as Nucleolus Estate for Smallholding (NES);
Project Management Unit (PMU); and Partial System. However, the
rate of rubber replanting through those specific projects are too
small compared to the total rubber areas in Indonesia. Taking
into account the positive aspects of the Rubber Based
Agroforestry Systems (RAS), ICRAF, CIRAD and IRRI worked jointly
to implement various RAS systems in order to provide farmers
better technological options for managing their farms. Results
presented in this paper are collected from both on-station and on-
farm research. At on-station, rubber planted at a double rows
spacing (6m x 2m x 14m) with and without perennial intercrops was
monitored and compared to that of the normal spacing (6mx3m).
Rubber girth with double row spacing reached tappable size at
five years after planting and similar to that planted with normal
spacing. Rubber growth at the plot planted with Acacia mangium a
very fast growing tree, at the same time with rubber, was very
slow: a haft of that of the other treatments. If the fast growing
trees are planted two years after rubber planting, then rubber
growth is similar to that of normal spacing. Three types of RAS
were tested at farmers' plots (RAS1, RAS2, and RAS3). The total
number of participants is about 150 farmers, in 100 ha plots,
distributed in Jambi, West Kalimantan, West Sumatra and South
Sumatra. Results of clone comparison in RAS 1 type of trial (
maintenance only on rubber rows) showed that rubber growth
variability was more due to the variability of farmers' plots and
frequencies of weeding. Rubber clones such as PB 260; RRIC 100
and BPM1 planted under RAS 1 can adapt the RAS conditions and can
be tapped at 5-7 years after planting. These findings provide
farmers alternatives to develop more environmentally friendly and
divers systems in their farms, compared to that of monoculture
system. This paper presents also various results related to more
intensive RAS (RAS1 and RAS 3).
Keywords: Agroforestry; rubber ; timber trees ; Acacia mangium ;
Imperata cylindrica ; RAS ; Jambi ; West Kalimantan ;
West Sumatra ; South Sumatra
Date: 2007-03-20
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00137596_v1&r=agr
16. Rebuilding the Eastern Baltic cod stock under environmental
change - a preliminary approach using stock, environmental,
and management constraints
Christine Roeckmann
Uwe A. Schneider
Michael A. St.John
Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute,
Dublin)
The population dynamics of the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua
callarias L.), unlike many other stocks, shows a strong
dependency on environmental conditions. To test the implications
of different management policies on the stock and the fishery in
a system of global environmental change, we apply a spatially
disaggregated, discrete time, age-structured model of the Eastern
Baltic cod stock in 50 year simulation analyses. The simulation
provides an analysis of stock, yield, and revenue development
under various management policies and environmental scenarios.
The policy analysis, focusing on different regulations of fishing
mortality, is embedded into three environmental scenarios,
assuming low, medium, or high climate and environmental change.
The environmental assumptions are based on simulation results
from a coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate model, which
project salinity in the Baltic Sea to decrease by 7-47% in the
period 2071-2100 relative to the reference period 1961-1990. Our
simulation results show that a significant reduction in fishing
mortality is necessary for achieving high long-term economic
yields. Moreover, under the presented environmental scenarios, a
stock collapse cannot be prevented. It can, however, be postponed
by the establishment of a marine reserve in ICES subdivision 25.
Keywords: Baltic cod, climate change, environmental variability,
reproductive volume, population dynamics, management,
policy, age-structured model, temporal marine reserve
JEL: Q22
Date: 2005-08
Date: 2005-12
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:84&r=agr
17. Assessing potential impact of avian influenza on poultry in
West Africa: a spatial equilibrium model analysis
You, Liangzhi
Diao, Xinshen
"In this paper, the authors analyze the potential economic
impacts of avian influenza (AI) in West Africa, taking Nigeria as
an example. They find that, depending on the size of the affected
areas, the direct impact of the spread of AI along the two major
migratory bird flyways would be the loss of about 4 percent of
national chicken production. However, the indirect
effect?consumers' reluctance to consume poultry if AI is
detected, causing a decline in chicken prices?is generally
larger than the direct effect. The study estimates that Nigerian
chicken production would fall by 21 percent and chicken farmers
would lose US$250 million of revenue if the worst-case scenario
occurred. The negative impact of AI would be unevenly distributed
in the country, and some states and districts would be seriously
hurt. This study is based on a spatial equilibrium model that
makes use of the most recent spatial distribution data sets for
poultry and human populations in West Africa. The study shows
that, while most of the attention has focused on preventing
global influenza pandemic, preventive measures are also needed at
the national, subnational, and local levels, because AI could
potentially have a huge negative impact on the poultry industry
and the livelihood of smallholder farmers in many regions in West
Africa.." Authors' Abstract
Keywords: Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, Small
farmers, Spatial analysis (Statistics),
Date: 2006
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:dsgddp:40&r=agr
18. Public Infrastructure, Input Efficiency and Productivity
Growth in the Canadian Food Processing Industry
Jeffrey I. Bernstein (Department of Economics, Florida
International University)
Theofanis P. Mamuneas (Department of Economics, University
of Cyprus,)
Canadian food processing is an important manufacturing industry,
accounting for 13 percent of shipments. By its nature food
processing depends on infrastructure capital. Our objective is to
estimate infrastructure?s effects on input requirements, cost
and productivity. The increase in capital and decrease in
materials were respectively 2.5 and 3 times greater than the -0.
07 infrastructure elasticity of labor. Infrastructure investment
was cost-reducing by inducing reductions in employment and
intermediate inputs. A 1 percent increase caused cost to decline
by 0.16 percent. Infrastructure capital was a major contributor
to productivity, annually contributing 0.5 percentage points.
This was nearly double TFP growth.
Keywords: Food Processing, Infrastructure Capital, Productivity
Growth.
JEL: D24 L66
Date: 2007-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:0703&r=agr
19. THE BENEFITS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION REDUCTION: AN
APPLICATION OF FUND
Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute,
Dublin)
The avoided damages of climate change are estimated for a range
of emission reduction policies from a range of business as usual
scenarios. In the emission abatement scenarios, concentrations of
greenhouse gases overshoot before falling to a stable level. The
peak concentrations are used to characterise the stabilisation
scenario. Similarly, the peak impacts are used to evaluate the
scenarios. This is in line with avoiding ?dangerous
interference with the climate system?. Results are shown for
both cost-effective and ?realistic? emission reduction
policies. Avoided climate change impacts increase with emission
abatement, but the additionally avoided impacts fall as abatement
gets more stringent. The most serious climate change impacts can
be avoided with only modest emission reduction. Very stringent
emission reduction may even increase climate change impacts,
because of the removal of the sulphur veil and because emission
abatement costs may slow economic growth and increase
vulnerability. A comparison of the net present value of the costs
of emission reduction with the net present value of the avoided
damage also point towards more modest emission abatement. These
findings are robust to variations in scenarios and parameters.
Keywords: Avoided impacts of climate change, emission reduction,
climate policy
JEL: Q54
Date: 2005-04
Date: 2005-04
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:64&r=agr
20. Decomposing the Growth in Residential Land in the United
States
Overman, Henry G.
Puga, Diego
Turner, Matthew A
This paper decomposes the growth in land occupied by residences
in the United States to give the relative contributions of
changing demographics versus increases in the land area used by
individual households. Between 1976 and 1992 the amount of
residential land in the United States grew 47.5% while population
only grew 17.8%. At first glance, this suggests an important role
for per household increases. However, the calculations in this
paper show that only 24.3% of the growth in residential land area
can be attributed to State level changes in land per household.
37.5% is due to overall population growth, 5.9% to the shift of
population towards States with larger houses, 22.7% to an
increase in the number of households over this period, and the
remaining 9.5% to interactions between these changes. There are
large differences across states and metropolitan areas in the
relative importance of these components.
Keywords: land use; population growth
JEL: O51 R14
Date: 2007-03
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6190&r=agr
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